In sports betting, it is crucial to manage your bankroll. Sports betting should be treated as any other financial venture. It is all about personal responsibility. It is all about you finding what works for your needs. Gambling addiction people aren't lying when referring to only gambling with money you can afford. It's not a defeatist approach to sports betting. You should consider the possibility of losing money. It is just like other forms of gambling. There is always an edge, but it doesn't usually belong to you.
There are still handicappers who are very successful. They are skilled at picking the right games and finding mathematical edge, but they all have one thing in common. They are able to manage a bankroll. It doesn't really matter if you're a newbie or an established player in the industry, playing $20,000 or $5 per game. It is essential to be responsible for your bankroll. This is crucial to be a successful handicapper. While you can pick winners 60% of the time, if you don't practice simple bankroll management techniques you could still lose money.
There are many ways to manage your bankroll in handicapping. Here are a few options, from the very basic to the more complicated and complex. While what works for one person may not work for another, the ultimate goal should be the same. You must show profit to beat the vig. Let's start with the basics, and then move on to the more complex topics.
Flat Betting is simply the act of betting the same amount on all games. Many people find this difficult because they believe they have a stronger view on one particular game than the other. If you have a small bankroll and are just starting out, it is best to stick with one strong opinion.
Let's suppose you have $100 in your bankroll. What amount are you comfortable betting on? Are you able to refill your account if it goes bankrupt? What would it cost to deposit another $100? All these are important considerations. Limits as low as $1 are offered by some sportsbooks. Some sportsbooks have limits as low as $1. Others limit wagers to $5. As a rule of thumb, a handicapper will recommend that wagers be at least three percent of your bankroll.
Flat betting can be viewed from two perspectives. The conservative approach is more risk-averse than the other. Although you don't bet a lot of games, you may still have three to four games per night across the NHL and NBA. You might have three to four college football games Saturday, and two or three NFL Sunday games. Flat betting is simply the betting of the same amount on all games. You are hoping to make a profit above the 52.38% break-even rate with a vig at -110. Flat betting is where you take what you consider to be greater odds by betting on games that you are most confident in, and hoping to make more profits this way.
This is the best option for novice gamblers. This is the easiest approach and exposes your bankroll the least. You only lose the juice if you win 50% of your games. This would be approximately 10 cents per dollar for every standard -110 wager.
Flat betting is also popular among high-volume gamblers. Larger wins would be possible if there are many edges across a lot of games. While high-volume players might make slight adjustments on bigger plays, most of the time, the edges will be combined into one standard size. High-volume players may play between 12 and 15 plays per night in winter sports, as well as 10 to 12 plays on Saturday college football games. Most of these bets will have the exact same size units. Volume is not appealing. You will need to win three bets in order to make up the loss. Many high-volume gamblers will choose a unit size and stay with it until they have enough money to increase their bankroll. They will then choose a different bet size and continue to use it.
Let's take an example. Let's suppose you have $200 in your bankroll and that you decide to use $5 for your standard unit size. This is $5, which is slightly less than 3 percent. However, it's the amount you are comfortable with. Each example bet will cost 1.1 units on the standard juice -110 juice. This simplifies the math. This means that you can bet 1.1x on the standard -110 juice to win 1x, rather than 1x on the standard -110 juice to win.909x.
Let's assume that this is your card on February 1, 2017.
NBA: Minnesota +6; Loss; $5.50 to Win $5; -1.1x
NBA: Indiana -2. (WIN; $5.50 win to win $5; +x)
CBB Drake +16.5 (WIN, $5.50 to Win $5; +1x
CBB: USC-1.5 (WIN; $5.50 win to win $5; +1x)
Results: Units Risked: 4.4; Units Won: 3. Units Lost: 1.1
The night's profit is $9.50 or 1.9 units (5.5 * 1.9)
Imagine if you had two units in that Minnesota play and placed $11 on it to win $10. Even though you won 3-1 with your picks, your profit for the night would have been just $4. Because of the larger bet, you would only have made 0.8 units.
The Sliding Scale. Many handicappers who sell picks in this industry will recommend a sliding scale. All bettors have the option to adopt this sliding scale if they wish. You've probably heard of "three-dime plays", "three-dime bets" and "five-star Game of the week". As we all know, there is a marketing aspect to the industry. However, these are often games that handicappers have a more strong opinion about. It will happen. You will find a game you love. You'll want to "load up," on this game.
It takes a bankroll, knowledge of the industry, break-even points, and vig. It is important to realize that "stepping out" in order to make a 5x wager on a five-star Game of the Week poses certain challenges. This is a more aggressive approach for bankroll management. It works for some people. These are people who don't play a lot of games in a day or on weekends.
This can be done by some sites based on a star rating. One star represents your standard bet amount. Three stars would equal three times the amount. Five stars would equal five times the amount. Personal handicapping is about weighing the risk-reward ratio of placing five times as much on one play. You can't put $25 on one game if you have a $100 bankroll but a $5 bet. A 15% investment on a single game is the maximum that most people would recommend for a $3 bettor who follows the three percent rule. You must consider the consequences of losing 15% of your bankroll. It could limit your ability to place future wagers. It could make it more difficult to deposit additional funds. However, when we look at the slot machines, we tend to think about the possibility of winning big and not just the 3x line for three cherries.
A sliding scale should be understood that you must always make a profit with a night of 2-1 nights. A 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 scale is the best. With a loss of 4x, you will have something to prove if you win the 2x or 3x wagers. A win of a 3x or 4x could help to cushion the loss of a 5x. It is not a good idea to have a 2x-5x or 10x scale. If the 10x fails, two wins will still result in a three-unit loss.
You'll find the best games as you become more proficient at choosing and picking your spots. Be aware of how big your bankroll is affected by your big bets and only place a bet that you can afford.
Kelly Criterion: Here we can improve our bankroll management vocabulary. Kelly Criterion: This is a mathematical method that determines how much to wager based on your perceived advantage. This formula is simple:
(Probability * Decimal Odds = 1) = % to place a "Kelly Stake"
Let's suppose you have a model. Your model requires all the information necessary to calculate an expected outcome. The model predicts that the Miami Beach Flamingos will win a sporting event by a 65% margin (which would mean a line of -185) over the Ocean City Hermit Crabs. Miami Beach is actually at -120. The decimal odds are 1.83 for -120.
Decimal Odds 1.83
The equation is now:
(.65 * 1.83) - 1 / (1.83 - 1)
(1.1895 - 1) / .83
.1895 / .83 = .228313
This example shows that the Kelly Criterion would suggest that you place a maximum bet of 22.83% of your bankroll, with a 65-cent advantage on your line.
Let's take a look at a basketball and point spread example. In NBA D-League action, the Ashtabula Aardvarks have been listed as a 2.5-point favourite against Grove City Geese. A 2.5-point favorite is a 2.5 point favorite. The money line is in the -140 area. However, your numbers show Ashtabula as favored by five points. This is closer to a -215 moneyline. A -215 money line indicates a 68.25% chance of winning. The Decimal Odds of the -140 Line are approximately 1.71
The equation is:
(.6825 * 1.71) - 1 / (1.71 - 1)
(1.167075 - 1) / .71
.167075 / .71 = .23531
The Kelly Criterion suggests that your ideal bet size is 23.53 percent your bankroll.
This may sound crazy, and it is. Most bettors who follow the Kelly theory of managing their bankroll play more like "quarter Kelly", which is 2.5 percent. This would mean that 5.88% of your bankroll would be required (.2353 *.25). There is a high risk of losing 23.53 percent of your bankroll by betting on a single edge of 2.5 points. This is why most people adjust their calculations to minimize risk but still seek out big benefits.
This is a more aggressive and advanced approach. This is possible and you can find many odds converters to convert the money line to percentage calculations, as well as the American odds to decimal odds. This type of money management system is not for everyone. You can use the full Kelly Criterion investment with casino games such as blackjack when there is a perceived advantage or with the stock markets. It can be worthwhile to limit your exposure in sports betting by only using a fraction the Kelly Criterion.
Martingale System: The Martingale System is a cautionary tale about betting systems. Although this system is most commonly used for casino games, you can bet someone has tried it out in sports betting. It is quite simple.
You keep the same amount of your bet if you win. If you lose, your bet amount is doubled. This assumes that you will win some point, and you get your money back! This sounds amazing, doesn't it? It's also a great way to get broke. What if you lose before you run out?
Let's take a look at it in practice. Assuming a $100 bankroll with a 5% unit, you would bet 1.1x on your chance of winning 1x.
Place a Bet 1: 5.50 to Win $5 (LOSS), ($94.50).
Place a 2nd bet for $11.00 to Win $10 (WIN) (104.50).
Bet 3: 5.50 to Win $5 (LOSS). ($99)
Bet 4: $11 to Win $10 (LOSS), ($88).
Play 5: $22 to Win $20 (WIN) ($108).
Place a Bet 6 for $5.50 to Win $5 (WIN) ($113
Bet 7: Win $5 (LOSS) ($107.50)
Bet 8: $11 to Win $10 (LOSS), ($96.50).
Bet 9: $22 to Win $20 (LOSS), ($74.50).
Bet 10: $44 to Win $40 (LOSS), ($30.50).
You don't have enough money to continue the Martingale strategy if you start with $100 in your bankroll. You've lost more than 70% of your bankroll in just 10 bets.
Because the losses are increasing in size, the Martingale system requires a larger bankroll than your regular bankroll. You can expect to lose long-term with every form of betting. This is not pessimism. That's probability. While the Martingale system may be profitable for the short-term you'll often lose in the long-term.
It would have looked something like this if you had been flat betting
Place a Bet 1: 5.50 to Win $5 (LOSS), ($94.50).
Place a second bet: $5.50 to win $5 (WIN), ($99.50).
Bet 3: 5.50 to Win $5 (LOSS). ($94).
Play 4: Bet $5.50 to Win $5 (LOSS), ($88.50).
Place a $5.50 bet to win $5 (WIN) ($93.50
Play 6: Bet $5.50 to Win $5 (WIN) (98.50)
Bet 7: Win $5 (LOSS) ($93).
Bet 8: Win $5 (LOSS)
Bet 9: Win $5 (LOSS) ($82)
Play 10: Bet $5.50 to Win $5 (LOSS), ($76.50).
You can fight on for many more days.
To determine which bankroll strategy works best for you, you need to be honest about your bankroll size, your goals, and the amount you can afford to deposit in case you go bankrupt. Although there are many other options and ways of managing money, these are good starting points to determine what works and what doesn’t.